Source: Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula 1 Team Media
It's safe to say Mercedes' 2024 season is far from going according to plan.
The team have not been able to get into shape with these new regulations since they were first introduced in 2022, struggling with inconsistencies in the car's aerodynamic performance. Whilst new concepts and ideas have been introduced to try and bring Mercedes back to their title-winning ways, the team are looking far from reaching that stage. If anything, it feels like they are now moving further away!
In the first four races, Mercedes has only managed to accumulate 34 points in total, over half of what is scored in the first four races last season. To further put into context the poor performance so far this season, 2024 is one of Mercedes' worst starts to a season, with only 2011 being worse-off.
So why has the Brackley-based gone from a race winning car to one that is now falling into the arms of the midfield and what effect does the loss of performance play on the team's future?
Why has it Gone Wrong in 2024?
There's quite a few variables to answer this question, so let's break it down.
Firstly, the drama for Mercedes already started before the season even begun with news broke out that Lewis Hamilton is leaving the team at the end of the year to join Ferrari. The move is a bitter blow to the German manufacturer, losing their star talent who has brought them six Driver's titles and seven Constructor's titles means big boots to fill for his replacement. But that's a challenge Mercedes will need to invest time into, finding a driver that can fill the large hole that Hamilton leaves behind... a tricky challenge indeed.
Now let's talk about the other dilemma for the team... the 2024 car.
Simply put, the performance and aerodynamics of the W15 are far from Mercedes' expectations. Sound like a familiar issue? Yep, this has been the case since the new regulations were introduced in 2022...
Despite different upgrades, changes to ideas and even scrapping concepts altogether, Mercedes still cannot find the optimal balance and car design to bring them to the front of the grid. This problem started all the way back to the new regulations, where Mercedes' concept fell foul of the performance metrics needed to be the title winning team they once were. They were capable of fighting for podiums and occasional wins from time to time, but never able to bother anyone for the Driver's or Constructor's championship.
What further compounds the issue for Mercedes is the budget cap regulations, meaning teams are limited to how many upgrades they can bring and the cost for doing so. Prior to this, Mercedes (like most large teams), could throw as much money and upgrades as they could to bring them back to the front. Now, that option isn't availble, and the team rely heavily on maximising the most of their limited upgrades per year, relying on their engineering skills and design innovation to accomplish this goal. Right now, Mercedes have not yet found the innovation needed, but things can change very quickly.
There are also potential signs of reliability issues with the W15 this season. This started in the opening race where both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell had to combat cooling issues during the race, resulting in a loss of performance and competitiveness against rival teams. Hamilton also experienced an engine issue during the Australian Grand Prix, forcing him to retire from the race. These are just a small number of examples but one teams will definitely want to be weary of and ensure they are resolved as quickly as possible.
How does this all affect Mercedes?
Mercedes have already felt the impact of not having a competitive car in these new regulations by losing Lewis Hamilton this year. Hamilton may not be the only leaver though. The F1 recruitment battle continously swings back and forth between teams, and Mercedes have both gained and lost members over the last few years. This war for talent will likely to continue and so all teams need to ensure they incentivise and retain the best talent. It's always a possibility that a car that is not delivering the performance the team expect could make members consider other options. After all, everyone wants to win, not just the drivers!
Could this potentially affect their sponsors as well? We already saw that long-time sponsor of Mercedes, Monster, switched allegiances to sponsor McLaren instead. Sponsorship is huge for teams in terms of their financial margins, and those who are winning (*cough cough* Red Bull) will find more sponsorship deals heading their way and a large influx of cash to go with it. Mercedes, of course, have had those same deals during their time at the top of the F1 mountain between 2014 to 2021. Are they still getting the same sort of deals now? Perhaps not given the performance is not where it once was...
So all recruitment and commercial parts aside, what about on track?
Well clearly the loss of performance will mean Mercedes are not going to be fighting for the driver's championships anytime soon. Sounds obvious, I know, but it has to be said. After all, the team isn't here to accept being the fourth of fifth fastest team, they want to be the fastest team. They want the race wins and titles that follow with it. But whilst these issues are still lingering, Mercedes will be nowehere near where they once was. The road also seems fairly long to recover back to that stage unless the team can find a stroke of engineering innovation or other teams are unable to make sufficient gains with their inevitable upgrades.
There are also questions asked about Toto Wolff, the CEO. The man who has led the team to all of their glory. Is he not able to bring this team back to the golden era for the Silver Arrows? Is it time for new leadership to be appointed to put Mercedes back on track?
My opinion... Toto Wolff should stay.
He is the same CEO that led Mercedes to the front of the grid in the first place. Yes, it's a rough patch for the team and him right now, but Wolff has the people and the resources to recover from this. It may take time, learning and money to get there, but the end goal is that they get there. Let's not lose faith in Wolff yet...
Can Mercedes Recover from this Slump?
With all of these issues in mind, with all of the implications that follow from it, both on and off the racing weekend, the question is that is this the end for Mercedes' time at the front of the grid? Will Mercedes have to resign to the fact they will now be a midfield team, in a similar boat to McLaren of trying to restore their former glory?
Of course Mercedes can recover from this!
If the team can understand their car philosophy in its entirity, understanding the problems and solutions that can help mitigate or resolve them altogether. If they develop and continue to recruit talent that can help them on their mission back to the top. If they can do all of this in the restricted set of regulations we have.... Mercedes will be back at the top before we know it.
When it will be? I'm not sure. How difficult will it be? Extremely difficult. But is it possible? Absolutely!
With the strength of the team, the facilities and resources available, all under Toto Wolff's leadership, there is still hope the Brackley-based team can still find their feet again.